Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
JETBLUE · FLIGHT B6 634
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
B6 634 · SJU → BUF
departs 6:29 PM AT · arrives 11:07 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 24%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 30%
Mon 11/2 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at BUF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BUF?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
B6's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Other factors
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at SJU that day
Weather at each end
SJU (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 3,600 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
BUF (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.