Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

BRITISH AIRWAYS · FLIGHT BA 221 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

BA 221 · LHR → STL

departs 5:53 PM GMT · arrives 9:55 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 62h before departure

Arrive at STL more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to STL?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into STL at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LHR

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

Weather at each end

LHR (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

STL (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

BA 221 · LHR → STL

Odds over time

How late will it get to STL?