Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

BRITISH AIRWAYS · FLIGHT BA 225 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

BA 225 · LHR → MSY

departs 4:54 PM GMT · arrives 9:33 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 61h before departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±3 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MSY?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Arrivals into MSY at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LHR

↓ BA's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

LHR (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSY (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

BA 225 · LHR → MSY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSY?