Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4247
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
C5 4247 · IAH → ICT
departs 7:55 PM CT · arrives 9:46 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Thu 10/29 14%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at ICT more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ICT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at ICT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to ICT?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at ICT that day
↑
7pm departures from IAH are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↓
ICT usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ICT (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.19 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.