Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4309
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
C5 4309 · IAH → BRO
departs 8:19 PM CT · arrives 9:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 69h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Thu 10/29 15%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 14%
Sun 11/1 18%
Mon 11/2 19%
Tue 11/3 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at BRO more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BRO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at BRO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BRO?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from IAH are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↓
BRO usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BRO (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.