Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4313
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
C5 4313 · IAH → HRL
departs 6:24 PM CT · arrives 7:48 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Thu 10/29 16%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 23%
Mon 11/2 22%
Tue 11/3 23%
Odds over time
Arrive at HRL more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HRL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at HRL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HRL?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from IAH are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↓
HRL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
HRL (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.