Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4313
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
C5 4313 · LBB → IAH
departs 2:29 PM CT · arrives 4:31 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 12%
Thu 10/29 17%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±6 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave LBB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at LBB that day
↑
Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late
↑
IAH is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
LBB (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 1.80 in
IAH (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.