C5 4367 · ROC → IAD

departs 10:23 AM ET · arrives 11:46 AM ET

Forecast issued Fri 5:00 AM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to IAD?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ROC

Weather at each end

ROC (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

IAD (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

C5 4367 · ROC → IAD

Odds over time

How late will it get to IAD?