Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4816
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
C5 4816 · AMA → IAH
departs 3:29 PM CT · arrives 5:24 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 12:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Thu 10/29 15%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 15%
Sun 11/1 18%
Mon 11/2 24%
Tue 11/3 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave AMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi, 0.8 in of rain forecast at AMA that day
↑
Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late
↑
3pm departures from AMA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↓
AMA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
AMA (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 0.5 mi Precip 0.78 in
IAH (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.