Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4978
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
C5 4978 · LBB → IAH
departs 4:53 PM CT · arrives 6:54 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Thu 10/29 22%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 20%
Mon 11/2 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
15%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave LBB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.6 mi, 1.8 in of rain forecast at LBB that day
↑
Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↓
C5's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LBB (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 0.6 mi Precip 1.80 in
IAH (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.