DL 1438 · SJC → LAX

took off 6:42 PM PT · expected to land 7:31 PM PT (scheduled 6:12 PM PT → 7:34 PM PT)

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAX?

LIVE

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ LAX is prone to delays

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

↓ This flight has been late 9% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC

Weather at each end

SJC (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts9 kt Ceiling2,400 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.03 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1438 · SJC → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?