Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1451
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
DL 1451 · PHX → SLC
departs 7:20 PM MT · arrives 9:59 PM MT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 1h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?
40%
chance · ±2 pts
+5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
40%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 41% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 38% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at SLC more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SLC?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
20%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day
↑
7pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
This flight has been late 14% of the time recently
↓
SLC usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.16 in
SLC (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 0.22 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.