DL 1686 · PHL → DTW

departs 8:10 PM ET · arrives 10:15 PM ET

Your aircraft is N345NB (A319), coming in as DL 1686 from DTW: landed 6:56 PM ET.

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Other factors

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts33 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility7 mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 1686 · PHL → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?