Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1801
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
DL 1801 · ATL → MBJ
departs 11:13 AM ET · arrives 1:06 PM EST
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 PM ET · 45h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 8%
Thu 10/29 10%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 14%
Sun 11/1 14%
Mon 11/2 11%
Tue 11/3 11%
Odds over time
Arrive at MBJ more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MBJ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at MBJ more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MBJ?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
ATL is busy at that time
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at MBJ that day
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
↓
MBJ usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MBJ (destination)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.