Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1809
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
DL 1809 · SAT → DTW
departs 3:59 PM CT · arrives 8:13 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 4:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 20%
Mon 11/2 16%
Tue 11/3 18%
Wed 11/4 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave SAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at DTW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DTW?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Cloud base down to 433 ft forecast at SAT that day
↑
Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late
↓
This flight has been late 9% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW
Weather at each end
SAT (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 433 ft Visibility 4.66667 mi Precip 0.14 in
DTW (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.