Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1858
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Yesterday
DL 1858 · ATL → CVG
departs 9:19 PM ET · arrives 10:52 PM ET
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 22%
Mon 11/2 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at CVG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CVG?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
ATL is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
CVG (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.