Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2189
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
DL 2189 · ATL → JAX
departs 5:51 PM ET · arrives 7:13 PM ET
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 36h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 15%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 21%
Sun 11/1 24%
Mon 11/2 21%
Tue 11/3 19%
Wed 11/4 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from ATL are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
↓
ATL usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JAX (destination)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 3,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.