Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2454 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Tomorrow

DL 2454 · TPA → LGA

departs 4:47 PM ET · arrives 7:26 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 2:00 AM ET · 39h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±12 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts24 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2454 · TPA → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?