Schedule: FAA flight plans.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2636 PROBABLY LANDED (THE FAA HASN'T CONFIRMED THE LANDING TIME)

Friday, October 30 Yesterday

DL 2636 · DTW → RIC

took off 3:45 PM ET · probably landed (not confirmed) (scheduled 2:21 PM ET → 4:01 PM ET)

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 9h after departure

Arrive at RIC more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RIC?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2pm departures from DTW are often late

↑ DTW is busy at that time

↑ Arrivals into RIC at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

↓ Visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at RIC that day

Weather at each end

DTW (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling11,857 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RIC (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility2.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2636 · DTW → RIC

Odds over time

How late will it get to RIC?