DL 2636 · RIC → DTW

took off 6:39 PM ET · expected to land 7:51 PM ET (scheduled 5:01 PM ET → 6:50 PM ET)

Forecast issued Fri 6:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

100% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DTW?

LIVE

On time or early
0%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
83%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late

↑ 5pm departures from RIC are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Visibility down to 2.5 mi forecast at RIC that day

↓ This flight has been late 10% of the time recently

Weather at each end

RIC (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility2.5 mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2636 · RIC → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?