Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2854
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
DL 2854 · SEA → LAX
departs 8:25 PM PT · arrives 11:15 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
31%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
65%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↓
Other factors
↓
DL's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 1,000 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.41 in
LAX (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.02 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.