Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 548 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

DL 548 · PHX → JFK

departs 10:35 PM MT · arrives 6:27 AM ET

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 3h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

51% chance · ±0 pts +27 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to JFK?

On time or early
49%
15–30 min late
24%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day

↑ 10pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Gusts to 30 kt forecast at JFK that day

↓ This flight has been late 13% of the time recently

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.16 in

JFK (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 548 · PHX → JFK

Odds over time

How late will it get to JFK?