Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 781 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30 Yesterday

DL 781 · JFK → LAS

departs 9:49 PM ET · arrives 12:39 AM PT

Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

44% chance · ±3 pts +10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
56%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from JFK are often late

↑ Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↓ Other factors

↓ Gusts to 30 kt forecast at JFK that day

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts30 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling4,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 781 · JFK → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?