Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 8830
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
DL 8830 · PHX → SFO
departs 8:07 PM MT · arrives 10:07 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
54%
chance · ±1 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
54%
Leave 15+ late
53%
Arrive 1h+ late
23%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
7.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 56% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 52% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
53%
Yes 53%
No 47%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
44%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at PHX that day
↑
8pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.16 in
SFO (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.