Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 8846
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Yesterday
DL 8846 · YYC → SMF
departs 2:02 PM MDT · arrives 3:39 PM PT
Forecast issued Fri 11:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave YYC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
71%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SMF at that hour are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 667 ft forecast at YYC that day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
YYC (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
SMF (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.