Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 904 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Friday, October 30

DL 904 · SMF → ATL

departs 12:21 PM PT · arrives 8:05 PM ET

Forecast issued Thu 12:00 AM ET · 39h before departure

Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ATL?

On time or early
93%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late

↑ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ This flight has been late 10% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL

Weather at each end

SMF (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility8 mi Precipnone

ATL (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 904 · SMF → ATL

Odds over time

How late will it get to ATL?