Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1115
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
F9 1115 · ATL → LAS
departs 9:30 PM ET · arrives 10:53 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 28%
Thu 10/29 37%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 35%
Sun 11/1 40%
Mon 11/2 41%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±17 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 40% · changed – in 24h
–
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
60%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↑
9pm departures from ATL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.