Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1184
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
F9 1184 · LAX → LAS
departs 1:21 PM PT · arrives 2:40 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±13 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
32%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
1pm departures from LAX are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.