Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1192
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
F9 1192 · SFO → PHX
departs 5:43 PM PT · arrives 8:01 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 30%
Thu 10/29 37%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 27%
Sun 11/1 44%
Tue 11/3 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
43%
Arrive 1h+ late
21%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed – in 24h
–
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
43%
Yes 43%
No 57%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
27%
1–2 hours late
12%
Over 2 hours late
9%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling 10,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.54 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.