Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1428
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
F9 1428 · BNA → PHL
departs 4:56 PM CT · arrives 8:19 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 33%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 40%
Mon 11/2 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↑
4pm departures from BNA are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.