Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1549
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
F9 1549 · JAX → ATL
departs 7:37 PM ET · arrives 9:06 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 23%
Thu 10/29 37%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 32%
Sun 11/1 33%
Mon 11/2 35%
Tue 11/3 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
30%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Arrive at ATL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ATL?
On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into ATL at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
↓
JAX usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip none
ATL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.