Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1678
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
F9 1678 · DEN → DSM
departs 4:43 PM MT · arrives 7:41 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DSM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at DSM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DSM?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
↓
DSM usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DSM (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 2,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.22 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.