Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1829
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
F9 1829 · ORD → PHX
departs 4:20 PM CT · arrives 6:07 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 33%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 33%
Mon 11/2 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
58%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
58%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
58%
Yes 58%
No 42%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
41%
15–30 min late
25%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from ORD are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.63 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.