Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1831
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
F9 1831 · CLE → TPA
departs 6:41 PM ET · arrives 9:30 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Thu 10/29 37%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 25%
Sun 11/1 40%
Mon 11/2 32%
Tue 11/3 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±4 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave CLE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
70%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
6pm departures from CLE are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CLE
↓
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at TPA that day
Weather at each end
CLE (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.