Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1876
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
F9 1876 · LAS → MCO
departs 10:20 PM PT · arrives 6:06 AM ET
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Thu 10/29 37%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 23%
Sun 11/1 40%
Tue 11/3 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
39%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
39%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.1d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 39% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
61%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
13%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↑
10pm departures from LAS are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Gusts to 26 kt forecast at MCO that day
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.