Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2141
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
F9 2141 · DEN → PHX
departs 6:34 PM MT · arrives 7:42 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 20%
Thu 10/29 33%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 30%
Mon 11/2 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
54%
chance · ±9 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
54%
Leave 15+ late
37%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 33% · changed – in 24h
–
54%
Yes 54%
No 46%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
46%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
11%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.63 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.