Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2561
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
F9 2561 · TPA → IAH
departs 3:14 PM ET · arrives 4:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
27%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
27%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
3pm departures from TPA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
IAH (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.