Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2562
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
F9 2562 · IAH → TPA
departs 5:28 PM CT · arrives 8:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
37%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
37%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
37%
Yes 37%
No 63%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 34% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
5pm departures from IAH are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↓
Cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at TPA that day
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.