Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2858
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
F9 2858 · SFO → LAX
departs 7:12 PM PT · arrives 8:47 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 26%
Thu 10/29 39%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 19%
Sun 11/1 51%
Mon 11/2 42%
Tue 11/3 31%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±9 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.