Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3283
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
F9 3283 · DFW → PHX
departs 10:06 PM CT · arrives 10:52 PM MT
Forecast issued Wed 7:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Thu 10/29 33%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 28%
Sun 11/1 37%
Mon 11/2 34%
Tue 11/3 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
36%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
7.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
36%
Yes 36%
No 64%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
53%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
10pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,667 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip none
PHX (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 4,900 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.63 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.