Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3316
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
F9 3316 · SMF → LAX
departs 7:44 PM PT · arrives 9:20 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 65h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 35%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 26%
Sun 11/1 41%
Mon 11/2 36%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
32%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
32%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
32%
Yes 32%
No 68%
Leave SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
67%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
SMF (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 10,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 3,200 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.