F9 3381 · SAN → SFO

departs 10:44 AM PT · arrives 12:28 PM PT

Forecast issued Fri 9:00 AM ET · 5h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

42% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.04 in

SFO (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling4,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 3381 · SAN → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?