Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3494
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30 Tomorrow
F9 3494 · LAS → IAD
departs 10:36 PM PT · arrives 6:20 AM ET
Forecast issued Thu 6:00 AM ET · 44h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 34%
Mon 11/2 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
41%
chance · ±7 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
41%
Leave 15+ late
35%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.1d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
41%
Yes 41%
No 59%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
58%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
10pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
This flight has been late 32% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.