Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3554
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
F9 3554 · MSY → MCO
departs 8:56 PM CT · arrives 11:54 PM ET
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 31%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 17%
Sun 11/1 27%
Tue 11/3 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
13%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave MSY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 21% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MSY
↓
Gusts to 27 kt forecast at MCO that day
Weather at each end
MSY (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 4,400 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 26 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.