Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3738
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
F9 3738 · SNA → LAS
departs 4:02 PM PT · arrives 5:26 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 61h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 33%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 32%
Mon 11/2 28%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
46%
chance · ±12 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
46%
Leave 15+ late
39%
Arrive 1h+ late
14%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed – in 24h
–
46%
Yes 46%
No 54%
Leave SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed – in 24h
–
39%
Yes 39%
No 61%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
9%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
SNA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,100 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.02 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.