Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3801
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
F9 3801 · LAS → SFO
departs 3:08 PM PT · arrives 4:56 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Fri 10/30
Mon 11/2 48%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
52%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
52%
Leave 15+ late
40%
Arrive 1h+ late
17%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 37% · changed – in 24h
–
52%
Yes 52%
No 48%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 32% · changed – in 24h
–
40%
Yes 40%
No 60%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
48%
15–30 min late
21%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 33% of the time recently
↑
3pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 10,667 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.