Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3999
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
F9 3999 · DFW → SFO
departs 8:20 PM CT · arrives 10:10 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 37%
Thu 10/29 39%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 40%
Sun 11/1 64%
Mon 11/2 49%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
47%
chance · ±7 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
47%
Leave 15+ late
45%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 36% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
45%
Yes 45%
No 55%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
21%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
11%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 42% of the time recently
↑
8pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO
↓
Fridays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.