Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4113
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
F9 4113 · PHX → LAS
departs 2:40 PM MT · arrives 4:04 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 13%
Fri 10/30
Sat 10/31 17%
Sun 11/1 26%
Mon 11/2 25%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
48%
chance · ±11 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
48%
Leave 15+ late
47%
Arrive 1h+ late
25%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
6.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed – in 24h
–
48%
Yes 48%
No 52%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
47%
Yes 47%
No 53%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
51%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
17%
Over 2 hours late
7%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.5 in of rain forecast at PHX that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.63 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.