Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4131
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
F9 4131 · ABQ → LAS
departs 4:48 PM MT · arrives 5:34 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 63h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±13 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
38%
Arrive 1h+ late
16%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave ABQ more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 35% · changed – in 24h
–
38%
Yes 38%
No 62%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
10%
Over 2 hours late
6%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ABQ
Weather at each end
ABQ (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 7,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.