Schedule: the flights that flew on Friday, Oct 23, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4204
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Friday, October 30
F9 4204 · SEA → LAS
departs 9:11 PM PT · arrives 11:49 PM PT
Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Thu 10/29 33%
Fri 10/30
Sun 11/1 35%
Mon 11/2 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
31%
chance · ±8 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
31%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
12%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed – in 24h
–
31%
Yes 31%
No 69%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 31% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 27% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling 2,800 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.03 in
LAS (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.